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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-05-02T08:42:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-05-02T08:42Z
CME Note: The CME may have arrived on 2016-05-06T15:48Z. ACE magnetic field data shows a disturbance in form of a flux rope, plus density increased while the temperature decreased. Time of arrival is very rough.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-05-06T15:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-05-06T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/10585/1
Model Inputs:
2016-05-02T09:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-37.0, Lat.=3.0, Speed=386.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2016-05-02T18:15Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2016-05-06T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160502_181500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 95.78 hour(s)
Difference: 5.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2016-05-02T16:01Z

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